General Sir Peter Wall is the former Chief of the General Staff of the British Army. Today – with co-founder Jennifer Carnegie (whose CV is equally impressive) – he runs leadership development firm Amicus. What the Amicus team doesn’t know about leadership isn’t worth knowing, but the fact that their work is informed by deep knowledge of geopolitics and its impact makes their expertise especially valuable now, in mid-2025. 

Amicus are friends of Collingwood, having helped our information, media and events entrepreneur clients to develop their leadership teams so they are equipped to scale the business and thereby remove founder dependency. The latter is especially vital for any founder who wants to exit, as investors don’t love businesses that clearly only work with the founder in place. 

This is why Amicus and Collingwood convened a team of leaders to discuss the implications of geopolitical uncertainty for business. Over a roundtable breakfast at the In and Out Naval and Military Club in London, Sir Peter shared a sobering view of ‘world events’, covering everything from the impact of Europe’s prolonged under-investment in the military, to the differences between Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0, to whether we should be worried about World War III. 

But what are the takeaways for business? 

Be decisive and don’t be negative

Sir Peter predicted that we are heading into a period of “real pain” for businesses, with unpredictability, rather than conflict or political manoeuvres per se, being the disruptor. Already, Amicus have experienced a shift in US corporate sentiment, to a place where leaders are “nervous, often embarrassed, and uncertain” about what the future holds. However, Sir Peter cautioned that now is the time for decisive leadership. The businesses that will succeed in current conditions are those that act rather than wait, and who see this period of pain as just another “weather event” to get through.

Mindset is important here. There is no place for negativity and ‘what-if?’ thinking in tough times, said Sir Peter. “Play the board as it is, not as you would want it to be,” is the mantra. If you or your leadership team are spending too much time bemoaning the problem, you are likely spending too little time on finding the solution. 

Be comfortable with 60% certainty 

You also need to be willing to make decisions with less information in times of unpredictability. If you are a leader that needs 100% certainty to act you are unlikely to be successful in any situation, but especially so right now. 

“If you typically need to be 80% confident, you may now need to accept that 60-70% is all you can hope for, and act anyway.” 

Empowering your team is vital. “Only do what only you can do,” stressed Sir Peter. Everything else should be delegated, and your leadership team and those below them should have the autonomy to act. If too many day-to-day decisions sit with you as the CEO, you are unlikely to be able to focus on the major issues your business is facing.

Be brilliant at the basics

Focus is enabled by being brilliant at the basics, by having the right people and processes. Getting these right gives you the capacity to focus on unexpected challenges and opportunities. Doing this requires weeding out the underperformers and failing processes. Now is not the time to be carrying people who don’t have the potential to improve.

Clearly, there is a need for leaders to step up to the plate. The good news is that it can be easier to be brave and decisive in times of crisis, as many leaders experienced during the Covid pandemic. Suddenly all sorts of courageous decisions, covering everything from technology to staffing, product development to operations, were made fast, many to the long-term, post-Covid benefit of the business. “There is more latitude to be bold when you’re under pressure,” Sir Peter explained.

Stay up-to-date with more Collingwood news and events by signing up to our Newsletter on the right >>